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☆ Now that inflation is slowing, here's when 10 experts think we'll see a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

High interest rates could slow consumer spending and lead to layoffs. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 10 consecutive times to fight inflation as the country emerged from its pandemic recovery. Here's how experts are feeling about the economy headed into the new year, and whether they think a recession is on the horizon. Some think a recession is likely in 2024Some experts predict high interest rates will take a toll on the economy, making a recession likely sometime next year. AdvertisementOthers think a recession is unlikely in 2024Other experts don't see a recession hitting the US economy in the next year.

Persons: —, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, he's, Ken Griffin, we're, Griffin, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, Marc Lasry, Lasry, Rob Arnott, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Adams, Raphael Bostic, Brian Moynihan, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Citadel, UBS, Capital, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, DoubleLine, Comerica Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, UCLA, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: United States, Dallas, Atlanta

☆ Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen expects a recession to come and go quickly before a stock market rally in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Billionaire hedge fund boss Steve Cohen doesn't expect a deep recession or a prolonged market downturn. Cohen said his hedge fund, Point72, maintains a "pretty positive" outlook on the economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementSteve Cohen, the billionaire chief of hedge fund Point72 and the owner of the New York Mets, has an upbeat outlook for the US economy and financial markets. AdvertisementAdvertisementEarlier this week, investing pioneer Rob Arnott shared a contrasting outlook for the economy this week. Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming.

Persons: Steve Cohen doesn't, Cohen, —, Steve Cohen, Rob Arnott, Arnott, Jerome Powell, CME's, Powell Organizations: Service, New York Mets, CNBC

☆ Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming, says Research Affiliates' Rob Arnott
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecessions always start with an economy that's been booming, says Research Affiliates' Rob ArnottRob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss finding opportunities in the market, the probability of recession, and more.

Persons: Rob Arnott Rob Arnott, Squawk Organizations: Research Affiliates

☆ 'Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming': An investing pioneer explains why he sees 50% chance of a downturn in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investing pioneer Rob Arnott said there's a 50-50 chance of a recession in the coming year. "People will say that recessions don't start with a booming economy," Arnott told CNBC Thursday. "There's a couple of headwinds that play against growth and in favor of value," Arnott said. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe said persistent inflation supports the case for value stocks rather than growth stocks, since they provide a greater margin of safety. Elevated inflation, too, sustains higher bond yields, which suggests a higher discount rate for long-term future growth, and ultimately "reduces the value of growth stocks relative to value stocks."

Persons: Rob Arnott, there's, Arnott, — Organizations: CNBC, Service, Research Affiliates

☆ 'Big Short' investor Greg Lippmann eyes resilient assets for tough environment: 'buy the bad at the horrible pricing'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Greg Lippmann of "The Big Short" fame sees a soft landing as unlikely, he told Bloomberg TV. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementGreg Lippmann, founding partner at LibreMax Capital, is focused on resilient assets as the chances of a soft landing are slim. That comes as high interest rates, weakened credit availability, and an office vacancy uptrend have all become mounting pressures on commercial real estate. But other ones are going to turn out to be medium to bad," he told Bloomberg TV, adding that, "And you just buy the bad at the horrible pricing.

Persons: Greg Lippmann, —, Lippmann, Ryan Gosling, It's, Rob Arnott Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, LibreMax

☆ This chart shows how AI hype has taken over the stock market as companies try to cash in on the frenzy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Companies that mentioned AI in earnings saw their stocks rise 4.6% on average, a study from Wall Street Zen found. Meanwhile, companies that didn't mention AI saw stock gains of nearly half that. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. What's more, 67% of companies' stocks climbed after mentioning AI, and among those gainers the jump was 8.5% on average. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Overconfident markets paradoxically transform brilliant future business prospects into even more brilliant current stock price levels," he wrote in a note.

Persons: ChatGPT, —, Adobe, Expedia, Rob Arnott Organizations: Wall, Service, Wall Street Zen, Carrier, Meta, Nvidia Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ How AI reshapes the economy: Wall Street legends David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott told us massive upheaval is coming for the job market — and overzealous investors are fueling a stock bubble
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Both David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott see big disruption coming for the labor market. AI stocks are also overextended amid the current mania, they said. Rob Arnott says AI will evolve rapidly and upend the labor market. He added: "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty." Beware of an AI-stock bubbleFor Arnott, AI will undoubtedly be good for bottom lines.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Rosenberg, Arnott, Tim Boyle, aren't, Merrill Lynch, it's, Tesla, that's, Gluskin Sheff Rosenberg Organizations: Labor, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, North, Rosenberg Research Locations: North American, ChatGPT

☆ Americans aren't spending like they used to
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

You can also download the app to get notifications about our biggest markets stories. Spending has remained elevated even through the Fed's 10 straight rate hikes, but warning signs of a change have started to surface. That's going to further take the wind out of Americans' brisk spending over the last few years. From David Rosenberg to Rob Arnott, experts are sharing what the disruptive technology can mean for the economy, jobs, and stock market. The biggest companies and banks can't agree on where the stock market is heading next.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, You'll, let's, Derek Davis, Patek Pilippe, Audemars, Jerome Powell, Brian Moynihan, Morgan Stanley, Andy Ryan, Pablo Hernández de Cos, David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Stocks, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Big Apple, Portland Portland Press, Getty, Rolex, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of Spain, Fed, Wall Street, Royal, Nvidia, Tesla, Morningstar Locations: Madrid, Phoenix, Miami, Royal Caribbean, New York, London

☆ Wall Street titans including David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott sound off on AI: What they told us about the disruptive technology — from how it will lead to 'permanent displacement' of jobs, to why it's
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

AI's impact on the job marketRob Arnott"Every important disruption since the start of the industrial revolution has cost millions of people jobs. Millions of jobs will be lost to those who know how to use AI. "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty. Are AI stocks in a bubble? Rosenberg"Advancements in AI technology, and its knock-on effects on profitability and productivity, is a legitimate investment thesis.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Savita Subramanian, Cam Harvey, Jawad Mian, Jobs, Merrill Lynch, aren't, Rosenberg, Harvey, Arnott, Brad Cornell, Aswath, There's, that's, Savita, –, capex, Mian Organizations: Industries, Investors, Research, Rosenberg Research, North, Bank of America Securities, Duke University, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tech, Software, Services, Professional Services, IT Services Locations: North American, ChatGPT, Asia, Taiwan

☆ Why the stock market's running of the bulls might be about to kick off
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Optimists rejoice — Wall Street strategists just pinpointed a handful of trends, indicators, and gauges that all suggest 2023 could see a new running of the bulls. The S&P 500 has already seen a sturdy 8% gain to start 2023, but year-end gains could be even bigger if one of BofA's bullish surprises pan out. "The S&P 500 has now spent more than 25 weeks above its 200-week moving average," Lee said. "Since 1950, there are zero instances of the S&P 500 making a new low once it has recovered above the 200-week moving average and spent at least 15 weeks there." US stock futures rise early Monday, as investors brace for a crucial week of earnings reports to weigh recession risks.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ Rob Arnott says there's now an 80% chance of a recession amid a credit crunch. Here are his top recommendations on where to park your money — including one trade he believes will deliver 15% yearly re
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He said US value stocks and developed economy non-US stocks offer the best returns. But there are still opportunities for big returns in US value stocks, he said. But an even bigger opportunity lies in non-US stocks in developed economies, which Arnott believes will return 15% on a yearly basis over the next decade. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is one way to gain exposure to non-US stocks, while the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) offers exposure to US value stocks. Arnott made the same calls on non-US stocks and US value stocks back in December.

☆ How Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway can navigate the looming economic turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

First, let's check in with Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett REUTERS/Rick Wilking1. Few people would argue with you if you said Warren Buffett is the greatest investor of all time. Fewer still would challenge anyone who claimed Berkshire Hathaway was one of the most resilient companies of all time. Is there any other company or conglomerate better poised to navigate uncertainty than Berkshire Hathaway?

☆ Rob Arnott pioneered a stock investing technique that exploded into a trillion-dollar industry. He presents a new approach to help everyday investors beat the market, even in crises.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates pioneered "smart beta" investing, which has gone global. Arnott and his firm say they've created a better way to index stocks than market cap weighting. Indexes have become the stock market's North Star, as passive investing turned into a global investment trend over the last decade. Meanwhile, Research Affiliates itself has grown to advise on $141 billion in wealth by the end of 2022. Arnott and his team at Research Affiliates suggest looking at the economic footprint of companies instead of their market capitalization.

☆ Why top Wall Street investors say there's never been a better time to invest your money overseas — and where they say the 7 best opportunities are
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But when US stocks deliver low annualized returns over a 10-year period, international stocks almost always deliver better performance. They included: global value vs. growth; emerging value equities; Japanese small value; and European small value. Among those, Inker and GMO are plugging the most money into global value and emerging market value stocks. Perfect timing would have seen investors hold their fire in emerging markets in 2001-02 to hit the very bottom. "Emerging-markets value, international value represent bargains.

☆ Recession 2023: Jerome Powell's Legacy Will Dictate Inflation, Stock Market, Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.

☆ How Deadly Were the Covid Lockdowns?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Rob Arnott | Casey B. Mulligan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

During the first two years of the pandemic, “excess deaths”—the death toll above the historical trend—markedly exceeded the number of deaths attributed to Covid. In a paper we just published in Inquiry, based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we found that “non-Covid excess deaths” totaled nearly 100,000 a year in 2020 and 2021. Even these numbers likely overestimate deaths from Covid and underestimate those from other causes. Covid testing has become ubiquitous in hospitals, and the official count of “Covid deaths” includes people who tested positive but died of other causes. On the other side, some Covid deaths early in the pandemic weren’t diagnosed as such.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ Elon Musk's conservative politics are hurting his personal brand and alienating Tesla's main customers, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk's conservative political views are alienating Tesla customers, Paul Krugman said. Krugman slammed Musk's political shift as "stupid" and impulsive as many Tesla buyers are liberals. The self-described centrist has voiced conservative views on numerous issues since then. Tesla shares have plunged by more than 70% from their peak in November 2021, slashing the automaker's market capitalization from over $1.2 trillion to under $400 billion. Tesla shares have also been hit by fears of flagging EV demand, supply disruptions, and Twitter being a costly distraction for Musk.

☆ Elon Musk predicts a US recession next year that might last 18 months — and warns investors to be careful
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk forecast a US recession next year that could last until the second quarter of 2024. He advised investors to proceed cautiously, conserve cash, and avoid using borrowed money. "It does seem like we're headed into a recession here in 2023," Musk said during an episode of the "All-In Podcast" released on December 24. Musk recommended investors brace for hard times ahead by setting aside some cash, and making prudent bets without using borrowed money. Still, Musk suggested on the podcast that after a largely uninterrupted 14-year expansion, the US economy is "overdue" for a recession.

☆ The world's top investment firms pay Rob Arnott for advice. He shares 2 trades he thinks will deliver 15% annualized returns over the next decade — and breaks down why there's a 'decent likelihood' th
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The first opportunity is in international developed market value stocks, which are represented by the EAFE Value Index. Investors can gain exposure to developed market value stocks through funds like the iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV) and the Vanguard International Value Fund (VTRIX). The second is in emerging market value stocks, which he said have an average Shiller P/E of 10x. The iShares Edge MSCI EM Value Factor UCITS ETF (EMVL) and the Dimensional Emerging Markets Value ETF (DFEV) offer exposure to emerging market value stocks. The Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) is one way to gain exposure to US value stocks.

☆ Elon Musk's Tesla, the world's leading EV maker, is capping off 2022 as one of the S&P 500's worst-performing stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But to Musk, prices have already started dropping, which eliminates the need for the Fed to keep rates so high. If it was all [interest] rates, NDX would be down a similar amount," Black tweeted at Musk. Ultimately, Tesla investors shouldn't feel alone in their pain amid downtrodden stock prices this year. How has your view of Tesla stock changed since October? Their managers told us how they overcame a brutal year for the stock market, and shared the stock picks that worked best.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns stocks are still as overvalued as they were in 1929 and 2000, setting up the S&P 500 for a 'far deeper retreat' and a decade of negative ret
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Hussman expects a "far deeper retreat" in stocks, despite the S&P 500's 20% loss in 2022. The 20% loss the S&P 500 has suffered this year has most investors searching for a bottom. "Though recent market losses have removed the most extreme speculative froth, our most reliable valuation measures remain near their 1929 and 2000 extremes." He also said he expects -6% returns over the next 10-12 years for the S&P 500. The chart below shows actual market returns (vertical axis) over 12 years when considering market capitalization of non-financial stock-to-gross value added valuations.

☆ The world's top investment firms pay Rob Arnott for advice. He shares 2 trades he thinks will deliver 15% annualized returns over the next decade — and breaks down why inflation could remain elevated
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

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